My January 2019 Market Watch

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Real Estate

Jersey Ranks Number 1 In Resident Outflows

 

    Some of the more interesting data on population shifts comes from the United Van Lines Annual National Movers Study. The study tracks their customers state-by-state migration patterns over the past year. One of the most interesting findings and one relevant to this Market Watch is the datapoint that twice as many people moved out of New Jersey as moved in. The outward migration, the largest of any state, dropped the Garden State’s population to pre-2013 levels. Our state saw just under 67 percent of movers leave the state. New Jersey was followed by Illinois with about 66 percent, Connecticut with 62 percent, and New York with 61.5 percent. The three Northeastern states were included in the top 10 outbound states for the fourth consecutive year.

    The study’s data reinforces longer-term migration patterns to southern and western states, driven by job growth, lower costs of living, state financial conditions and more temperate climate. Besides Florida and Arizona, other states with inward migration were Oregon, Nevada, South and North Carolina and New Mexico. Somewhat surprisingly, more people, 43 percent of movers, flocked to New Mexico for retirement than any other state.

        Reasons For Resident Outflows. Of the nearly 110,000 moves included in the nationwide 2018 study, more than 46 percent  were due to a job change or transfer. A distant second was retirement at 22 percent. However, in New Jersey, nearly 35 percent of the 2,959 movers who left the state in 2018 cited retirement as the reason. Retirement was cited by fewer than 5 percent of incoming residents. Family reasons were cited by over 28 percent of New Jersey incoming residents and just over 20 percent of outward bound movers. Job, as a reason, was cited by just under 35 percent of outgoing movers but almost 62 percent of incomers. Lifestyle as a reason for moving factored into 17 percent of the state’s outbound moves but only 7 percent of inbound moves. Approximately 6 percent of both inbound and outbound movers cited health reasons for their move.

    State Getting Younger But Not Poorer. Of the 1,471 movers who entered the state in 2018 and polled for the study, about 18 percent were 34 years of age or younger and about 20 percent between the ages of 35 and 44. Only about 24 percent of those who left the state were under the age of 44. This may be the result of the popularity of areas across from New York, like Hoboken and Jersey City, which provide quick movement to New York but have their own vibrant downtowns. Supporting retirement as the primary reason for moving out of New Jersey, 62 percent of outward bound residences were aged 55 or older with 35 percent being over 65 years. Only 45 percent of inward movers were over the age of 55.

    New jersey remains andexpensive place to live. High property taxes and cost of living expenses weigh heavily among home buyers. So, it was not too surprising to see that income levels for inward and outward movers were somewhat similar.  Over 71 percent of those moving to New Jersey reported annual income above $100,000, while just over 69 percent of outbound movers reported incomes in that range.

    If you find yourself contemplating a move, whether within or out of state, and have questions, contact me. I would welcome the opportunity to meet with you and discuss your concerns and plans.